Scorecard
How Many Worlds predictions compare to actual outcomes
100.0%
MWR Accuracy
1/1 correct
55.8%
MWR Expected Rate
avg prob of our pick
100.0%
Market Accuracy
1/1 correct
56.5%
Market Expected Rate
avg prob of mkt pick
0.1954
MWR Brier Score
lower is better
0.1892
Market Brier Score
lower is better
0.7%
Avg Edge
|sim − market|
1
Games Scored
resolved w/ sim
$-0.63
Naive Kelly P&L
-0.6% on $100 · $0.63 staked · ROI -100.0% · 1 bets · ½-Kelly no cap
+$3.85
Flat Bet MWR P&L
3.8% on $100 · $5.00 staked · ROI 77.0% · 1 bets · $5 flat
+$3.85
Bet-the-Market P&L
3.8% on $100 · $5.00 staked · ROI 77.0% · 1 bets · $5 flat
All Predictions
| Date | Game | Sport | MWR | Market | Winner | Result | Brier | Naive Bet | Naive P&L | MWR P&L | Mkt P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11 | Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad | Cricket | 56% Punjab Kings | 56% Punjab Kings | Punjab Kings | ✓ | 0.195 | — | — | +3.85 | +3.85 |