Scorecard
How Many Worlds predictions compare to actual outcomes
100.0%
MWR Accuracy
1/1 correct
55.8%
MWR Expected Rate
avg prob of our pick
100.0%
Market Accuracy
1/1 correct
56.5%
Market Expected Rate
avg prob of mkt pick
0.1954
MWR Brier Score
lower is better
0.1892
Market Brier Score
lower is better
0.7%
Avg Edge
|sim − market|
1
Games Scored
resolved w/ sim
$-0.63
Naive Kelly P&L
-0.6% on $100 · $0.63 staked · ROI -100.0% · 1 bets · ½-Kelly no cap
+$0.00
Cal. Kelly P&L
0.0% on $100 · $0.00 staked · ROI —% · 0 bets · ½-Kelly calibrated
+$3.31
Flex Kelly P&L
3.3% on $100 · $4.30 staked · ROI 77.0% · 1 bets · ½-Kelly flex-side
$-20.12
Cal. v2 Kelly P&L
-100.0% on $100 · $20.12 staked · ROI -100.0% · 1 bets · exp model
$-20.12
Flex v2 Kelly P&L
-100.0% on $100 · $20.12 staked · ROI -100.0% · 1 bets · exp flex
$-31.59
2L v4 Kelly P&L
-100.0% on $100 · $31.59 staked · ROI -100.0% · 1 bets · 2-layer policy
$-31.59
v4∥Cal Kelly P&L
-100.0% on $100 · $31.59 staked · ROI -100.0% · 1 bets · v4 else cal
+$3.85
Bet-the-Market P&L
3.8% on $100 · $5.00 staked · ROI 77.0% · 1 bets · $5 flat
All Predictions
| Date | Game | Sport | MWR | Market | Winner | Result | Brier | Cal. Prob | Naive Bet | Naive P&L | Cal. Bet | Cal. P&L | Flex Bet | Flex P&L | v2 Bet | v2 P&L | fv2 Bet | fv2 P&L | v4 Bet | v4 P&L | v4∥Cal Bet | v4∥Cal P&L | Mkt P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11 | Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad | Cricket | 56% Punjab Kings | 56% Punjab Kings | Punjab Kings | ✓ | 0.195 | 39.8% Sunrisers Hyderabad | $0.63 Sunrisers Hyderabad | -0.63 | — | — | $4.30 Punjab Kings | +3.31 | $20.12 Sunrisers Hyderabad | -20.12 | $20.12 Sunrisers Hyderabad | -20.12 | $31.59 Sunrisers Hyderabad | -31.59 | $31.59 Sunrisers Hyderabad | -31.59 | +3.85 |