Scorecard
How Many Worlds predictions compare to actual outcomes
16.7%
MWR Accuracy
1/6 correct
61.6%
MWR Expected Rate
avg prob of our pick
66.7%
Market Accuracy
4/6 correct
81.3%
Market Expected Rate
avg prob of mkt pick
0.3766
MWR Brier Score
lower is better
0.2390
Market Brier Score
lower is better
30.9%
Avg Edge
|sim − market|
6
Games Scored
resolved w/ sim
$-49.54
Naive Kelly P&L
-49.5% on $100 · $114.20 staked · ROI -43.4% · 6 bets · ½-Kelly no cap
+$164.43
Cal. Kelly P&L
164.4% on $100 · $272.98 staked · ROI 60.2% · 6 bets · ½-Kelly calibrated
+$164.43
Flex Kelly P&L
164.4% on $100 · $272.98 staked · ROI 60.2% · 6 bets · ½-Kelly flex-side
+$131.11
Cal. v2 Kelly P&L
141.9% on $100 · $92.38 staked · ROI 141.9% · 5 bets · exp model
+$187.18
Flex v2 Kelly P&L
291.5% on $100 · $64.22 staked · ROI 291.5% · 3 bets · exp flex
+$151.18
2L v4 Kelly P&L
204.9% on $100 · $73.78 staked · ROI 204.9% · 4 bets · 2-layer policy
+$68.66
v4∥Cal Kelly P&L
43.9% on $100 · $156.30 staked · ROI 43.9% · 6 bets · v4 else cal
$-4.47
Bet-the-Market P&L
-4.5% on $100 · $30.00 staked · ROI -14.9% · 6 bets · $5 flat
All Predictions
| Date | Game | Sport | MWR | Market | Winner | Result | Brier | Cal. Prob | Naive Bet | Naive P&L | Cal. Bet | Cal. P&L | Flex Bet | Flex P&L | v2 Bet | v2 P&L | fv2 Bet | fv2 P&L | v4 Bet | v4 P&L | v4∥Cal Bet | v4∥Cal P&L | Mkt P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23 | Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 55% No | 88% Yes | Yes | ✗ | 0.304 | 99.7% No | $24.51 No | -24.51 | $49.83 No | -49.83 | $49.83 No | -49.83 | $10.20 No | -10.20 | — | — | — | — | $49.83 No | -49.83 | +0.68 |
| Apr 22 | Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 67% No | 80% No | Yes | ✗ | 0.445 | 99.3% Yes | $8.33 Yes | +33.32 | $49.56 Yes | +198.24 | $49.56 Yes | +198.24 | $27.50 Yes | +109.99 | $27.50 Yes | +109.99 | $31.05 Yes | +124.21 | $31.05 Yes | +124.21 | -5.00 |
| Apr 22 | Will Boeing (BA) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 66% No | 75% No | Yes | ✗ | 0.432 | 97.5% Yes | $5.87 Yes | +17.14 | $48.35 Yes | +141.26 | $48.35 Yes | +141.26 | $21.93 Yes | +64.08 | $21.93 Yes | +64.08 | $17.77 Yes | +51.92 | $17.77 Yes | +51.92 | -5.00 |
| Apr 21 | Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 78% No | 53% Yes | Yes | ✗ | 0.606 | 81.7% No | $29.09 No | -29.09 | $32.70 No | -32.70 | $32.70 No | -32.70 | — | — | $14.79 Yes | +13.12 | — | — | $32.70 No | -32.70 | +4.43 |
| Apr 21 | Will MSCI (MSCI) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 54% Yes | 95% Yes | Yes | ✓ | 0.216 | 86.2% No | $21.67 No | -21.67 | $42.69 No | -42.69 | $42.69 No | -42.69 | $15.84 No | -15.84 | — | — | $12.01 No | -12.01 | $12.01 No | -12.01 | +0.29 |
| Apr 16 | Will Netflix Inc (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 51% No | 97% Yes | Yes | ✗ | 0.258 | 99.7% No | $24.74 No | -24.74 | $49.86 No | -49.86 | $49.86 No | -49.86 | $16.91 No | -16.91 | — | — | $12.94 No | -12.94 | $12.94 No | -12.94 | +0.13 |