Scorecard
How Many Worlds predictions compare to actual outcomes
16.7%
MWR Accuracy
1/6 correct
61.6%
MWR Expected Rate
avg prob of our pick
66.7%
Market Accuracy
4/6 correct
81.3%
Market Expected Rate
avg prob of mkt pick
0.3766
MWR Brier Score
lower is better
0.2390
Market Brier Score
lower is better
30.9%
Avg Edge
|sim − market|
6
Games Scored
resolved w/ sim
$-49.54
Naive Kelly P&L
-49.5% on $100 · $114.20 staked · ROI -43.4% · 6 bets · ½-Kelly no cap
$-24.71
Flat Bet MWR P&L
-24.7% on $100 · $30.00 staked · ROI -82.4% · 6 bets · $5 flat
$-4.47
Bet-the-Market P&L
-4.5% on $100 · $30.00 staked · ROI -14.9% · 6 bets · $5 flat
All Predictions
| Date | Game | Sport | MWR | Market | Winner | Result | Brier | Naive Bet | Naive P&L | MWR P&L | Mkt P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23 | Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 55% No | 88% Yes | Yes | ✗ | 0.304 | $24.51 No | -24.51 | -5.00 | +0.68 |
| Apr 22 | Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 67% No | 80% No | Yes | ✗ | 0.445 | — | — | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 22 | Will Boeing (BA) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 66% No | 75% No | Yes | ✗ | 0.432 | — | — | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 21 | Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 78% No | 53% Yes | Yes | ✗ | 0.606 | $29.09 No | -29.09 | -5.00 | +4.43 |
| Apr 21 | Will MSCI (MSCI) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 54% Yes | 95% Yes | Yes | ✓ | 0.216 | — | — | +0.29 | +0.29 |
| Apr 16 | Will Netflix Inc (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? | Earnings | 51% No | 97% Yes | Yes | ✗ | 0.258 | $24.74 No | -24.74 | -5.00 | +0.13 |