Scorecard
How Many Worlds predictions compare to actual outcomes
70.0%
MWR Accuracy
28/40 correct
67.9%
MWR Expected Rate
avg prob of our pick
50.0%
Market Accuracy
20/40 correct
66.1%
Market Expected Rate
avg prob of mkt pick
0.2476
MWR Brier Score
lower is better
0.2760
Market Brier Score
lower is better
13.6%
Avg Edge
|sim − market|
40
Games Scored
resolved w/ sim
+$336.24
Naive Kelly P&L
336.2% on $100 · $495.56 staked · ROI 67.9% · 40 bets · ½-Kelly no cap
+$573.64
Cal. Kelly P&L
573.6% on $100 · $241.43 staked · ROI 237.6% · 12 bets · ½-Kelly calibrated
+$594.67
Flex Kelly P&L
594.7% on $100 · $998.37 staked · ROI 59.6% · 40 bets · ½-Kelly flex-side
+$246.65
Cal. v2 Kelly P&L
146.8% on $100 · $168.07 staked · ROI 146.8% · 15 bets · exp model
+$221.85
Flex v2 Kelly P&L
138.4% on $100 · $160.35 staked · ROI 138.4% · 9 bets · exp flex
+$495.49
2L v4 Kelly P&L
150.9% on $100 · $328.26 staked · ROI 150.9% · 12 bets · 2-layer policy
+$711.72
v4∥Cal Kelly P&L
168.6% on $100 · $422.20 staked · ROI 168.6% · 19 bets · v4 else cal
$-47.68
Bet-the-Market P&L
-47.7% on $100 · $200.00 staked · ROI -23.8% · 40 bets · $5 flat
All Predictions
| Date | Game | Sport | MWR | Market | Winner | Result | Brier | Cal. Prob | Naive Bet | Naive P&L | Cal. Bet | Cal. P&L | Flex Bet | Flex P&L | v2 Bet | v2 P&L | fv2 Bet | fv2 P&L | v4 Bet | v4 P&L | v4∥Cal Bet | v4∥Cal P&L | Mkt P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers | NBA | 77% Cavaliers | 61% Cavaliers | Pistons | ✗ | 0.595 | 33.2% Cavaliers | $21.02 Cavaliers | -21.02 | — | — | $22.55 Pistons | +34.55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| May 13 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | NBA | 67% Pistons | 62% Pistons | Cavaliers | ✗ | 0.455 | 20.2% Pistons | $7.69 Pistons | -7.69 | — | — | $33.55 Cavaliers | +53.59 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| May 11 | Thunder vs. Lakers | NBA | 85% Thunder | 82% Thunder | Thunder | ✓ | 0.023 | 27.2% Thunder | $8.95 Thunder | +2.03 | — | — | $33.31 Lakers | -33.31 | — | — | — | — | $11.47 Lakers | -11.47 | $11.47 Lakers | -11.47 | +1.13 |
| May 10 | Knicks vs. 76ers | NBA | 72% Knicks | 53% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.079 | 27.8% Knicks | $20.49 Knicks | +18.54 | — | — | $23.50 76ers | -23.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +4.52 |
| May 9 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers | NBA | 64% Pistons | 62% Cavaliers | Cavaliers | ✗ | 0.414 | 51.5% Pistons | $21.03 Pistons | -21.03 | $10.58 Pistons | -10.58 | $10.58 Pistons | -10.58 | — | — | — | — | — | — | $10.58 Pistons | -10.58 | +3.13 |
| May 8 | Knicks vs. 76ers | NBA | 73% Knicks | 52% 76ers | Knicks | ✓ | 0.071 | 50.7% Knicks | $24.17 Knicks | +25.66 | $2.13 Knicks | +2.26 | $2.13 Knicks | +2.26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | $2.13 Knicks | +2.26 | -5.00 |
| May 7 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | NBA | 68% Pistons | 61% Pistons | Pistons | ✓ | 0.103 | 18.1% Pistons | $9.28 Pistons | +6.06 | — | — | $35.03 Cavaliers | -35.03 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +3.26 |
| May 6 | 76ers vs. Knicks | NBA | 80% Knicks | 73% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.041 | 34.8% Knicks | $13.40 Knicks | +5.08 | — | — | $25.97 76ers | -25.97 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +1.90 |
| May 5 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | NBA | 55% Pistons | 59% Pistons | Pistons | ✓ | 0.201 | 9.9% Cavaliers | $2.83 Cavaliers | -2.83 | — | — | $38.06 Pistons | +27.00 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +3.55 |
| May 4 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs | NBA | 80% Spurs | 85% Spurs | Timberwolves | ✗ | 0.641 | 25.3% Timberwolves | $2.61 Timberwolves | +14.22 | $5.81 Timberwolves | +31.66 | $5.81 Timberwolves | +31.66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | $5.81 Timberwolves | +31.66 | -5.00 |
| May 4 | 76ers vs. Knicks | NBA | 77% Knicks | 71% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.055 | 34.4% Knicks | $10.26 Knicks | +4.29 | — | — | $25.64 76ers | -25.64 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +2.09 |
| Apr 27 | Pistons vs. Magic | NBA | 83% Magic | 57% Pistons | Magic | ✓ | 0.029 | 79.1% Magic | $35.22 Magic | +47.66 | $31.86 Magic | +43.10 | $31.86 Magic | +43.10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | $31.86 Magic | +43.10 | -5.00 |
| Apr 26 | Lakers vs. Rockets | NBA | 58% Rockets | 55% Rockets | Rockets | ✓ | 0.175 | 6.2% Rockets | $3.04 Rockets | +2.44 | — | — | $44.44 Lakers | -44.44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +4.01 |
| Apr 26 | Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | NBA | 51% Spurs | 65% Spurs | Spurs | ✓ | 0.236 | 12.7% Trail Blazers | $10.15 Trail Blazers | -10.15 | — | — | $32.08 Spurs | +17.66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +2.75 |
| Apr 26 | Cavaliers vs. Raptors | NBA | 52% Cavaliers | 61% Cavaliers | Raptors | ✗ | 0.274 | 15.6% Raptors | $6.74 Raptors | +10.33 | — | — | $30.31 Cavaliers | -30.31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| Apr 25 | Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | NBA | 79% Timberwolves | 52% Nuggets | Timberwolves | ✓ | 0.042 | 47.9% Timberwolves | $30.00 Timberwolves | +31.85 | — | — | $0.63 Nuggets | -0.63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| Apr 25 | Knicks vs. Hawks | NBA | 58% Knicks | 54% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.174 | 27.6% Knicks | $5.20 Knicks | +4.52 | — | — | $24.18 Hawks | -24.18 | — | — | $15.33 Hawks | -15.33 | $30.18 Hawks | -30.18 | $30.18 Hawks | -30.18 | +4.35 |
| Apr 25 | Thunder vs. Suns | NBA | 71% Thunder | 78% Thunder | Thunder | ✓ | 0.085 | 8.5% Suns | $4.28 Suns | -4.28 | — | — | $31.17 Thunder | +9.05 | $10.55 Suns | -10.55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | +1.45 |
| Apr 25 | Pistons vs. Magic | NBA | 52% Magic | 56% Pistons | Magic | ✓ | 0.235 | 30.3% Magic | $7.12 Magic | +9.24 | — | — | $15.23 Pistons | -15.23 | $9.60 Magic | +12.47 | $9.60 Magic | +12.47 | $13.76 Magic | +17.88 | $13.76 Magic | +17.88 | -5.00 |
| Apr 24 | Lakers vs. Rockets | NBA | 74% Rockets | 75% Rockets | Lakers | ✗ | 0.550 | 15.7% Lakers | $0.22 Lakers | +0.66 | — | — | $19.24 Rockets | -19.24 | $14.50 Lakers | +42.38 | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| Apr 24 | Celtics vs. 76ers | NBA | 67% Celtics | 73% Celtics | Celtics | ✓ | 0.107 | 13.3% 76ers | $3.58 76ers | -3.58 | — | — | $25.82 Celtics | +9.80 | $8.17 76ers | -8.17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | +1.90 |
| Apr 23 | Knicks vs. Hawks | NBA | 60% Hawks | 52% Knicks | Hawks | ✓ | 0.162 | 14.6% Hawks | $10.94 Hawks | +11.62 | — | — | $34.92 Knicks | -34.92 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| Apr 22 | Magic vs. Pistons | NBA | 62% Pistons | 78% Pistons | Pistons | ✓ | 0.143 | 18.5% Magic | $9.87 Magic | -9.87 | — | — | $8.83 Pistons | +2.56 | $7.41 Magic | -7.41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | +1.45 |
| Apr 21 | Rockets vs. Lakers | NBA | 75% Lakers | 65% Rockets | Lakers | ✓ | 0.061 | 84.8% Lakers | $30.83 Lakers | +56.02 | $38.22 Lakers | +69.44 | $38.22 Lakers | +69.44 | $7.04 Lakers | +12.79 | — | — | $28.66 Lakers | +52.07 | $28.66 Lakers | +52.07 | -5.00 |
| Apr 20 | Hawks vs. Knicks | NBA | 70% Knicks | 70% Knicks | Hawks | ✗ | 0.488 | 16.5% Knicks | $0.53 Knicks | -0.53 | — | — | $38.10 Hawks | +86.82 | — | — | $19.17 Hawks | +43.68 | $24.46 Hawks | +55.73 | $24.46 Hawks | +55.73 | -5.00 |
| Apr 19 | Magic vs. Pistons | NBA | 76% Pistons | 78% Pistons | Magic | ✗ | 0.572 | 5.8% Magic | $1.21 Magic | +4.18 | — | — | $37.13 Pistons | -37.13 | $11.61 Magic | +39.98 | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| Apr 19 | 76ers vs. Celtics | NBA | 84% Celtics | 88% Celtics | Celtics | ✓ | 0.027 | 15.6% 76ers | $2.27 76ers | -2.27 | $1.76 76ers | -1.76 | $1.76 76ers | -1.76 | $14.48 76ers | -14.48 | — | — | — | — | $1.76 76ers | -1.76 | +0.71 |
| Apr 18 | Rockets vs. Lakers | NBA | 78% Rockets | 68% Rockets | Lakers | ✗ | 0.605 | 76.8% Rockets | $15.78 Rockets | -15.78 | $14.32 Rockets | -14.32 | $14.32 Rockets | -14.32 | — | — | $26.40 Lakers | +54.83 | $35.31 Lakers | +73.33 | $35.31 Lakers | +73.33 | -5.00 |
| Apr 18 | Hawks vs. Knicks | NBA | 58% Knicks | 68% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.179 | 32.8% Hawks | $7.28 Hawks | -7.28 | $0.24 Hawks | -0.24 | $0.24 Hawks | -0.24 | $2.94 Hawks | -2.94 | — | — | — | — | $0.24 Hawks | -0.24 | +2.41 |
| Apr 18 | Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | NBA | 68% Nuggets | 74% Nuggets | Nuggets | ✓ | 0.099 | 10.5% Timberwolves | $3.41 Timberwolves | -3.41 | — | — | $30.19 Nuggets | +10.88 | $7.15 Timberwolves | -7.15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | +1.80 |
| Apr 18 | Raptors vs. Cavaliers | NBA | 66% Cavaliers | 78% Cavaliers | Cavaliers | ✓ | 0.114 | 9.5% Raptors | $7.28 Raptors | -7.28 | — | — | $28.86 Cavaliers | +8.38 | $5.73 Raptors | -5.73 | — | — | — | — | — | — | +1.45 |
| Apr 17 | Hornets vs. Magic | NBA | 59% Magic | 60% Hornets | Magic | ✓ | 0.169 | 71.1% Magic | $15.46 Magic | +22.72 | $25.72 Magic | +37.79 | $25.72 Magic | +37.79 | $19.98 Magic | +29.35 | $19.98 Magic | +29.35 | $36.28 Magic | +53.31 | $36.28 Magic | +53.31 | -5.00 |
| Apr 15 | Warriors vs. Clippers | NBA | 79% Clippers | 68% Clippers | Warriors | ✗ | 0.619 | 33.1% Clippers | $17.17 Clippers | -17.17 | — | — | $25.46 Warriors | +52.87 | — | — | $13.92 Warriors | +28.91 | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| Apr 15 | Magic vs. 76ers | NBA | 76% Magic | 53% 76ers | 76ers | ✗ | 0.582 | 45.6% Magic | $27.86 Magic | -27.86 | — | — | $0.93 76ers | +0.81 | — | — | — | — | $16.05 Magic | -16.05 | $16.05 Magic | -16.05 | +4.35 |
| Apr 14 | Trail Blazers vs. Suns | NBA | 75% Suns | 59% Suns | Trail Blazers | ✗ | 0.567 | 12.8% Suns | $20.23 Suns | -20.23 | — | — | $39.03 Trail Blazers | +55.01 | — | — | $24.68 Trail Blazers | +34.79 | $30.82 Trail Blazers | +43.44 | $30.82 Trail Blazers | +43.44 | -5.00 |
| Apr 14 | Heat vs. Hornets | NBA | 54% Hornets | 68% Hornets | Hornets | ✓ | 0.213 | 8.6% Heat | $10.15 Heat | -10.15 | — | — | $36.70 Hornets | +17.67 | — | — | — | — | $31.11 Hornets | +14.98 | $31.11 Hornets | +14.98 | +2.41 |
| Apr 12 | Nuggets vs. Spurs | NBA | 61% Nuggets | 79% Spurs | Nuggets | ✓ | 0.154 | 86.8% Nuggets | $24.99 Nuggets | +91.23 | $41.57 Nuggets | +151.79 | $41.57 Nuggets | +151.79 | $9.61 Nuggets | +35.10 | — | — | — | — | $41.57 Nuggets | +151.79 | -5.00 |
| Apr 12 | Magic vs. Celtics | NBA | 57% Celtics | 85% Magic | Celtics | ✓ | 0.184 | 80.0% Celtics | $24.63 Celtics | +134.29 | $38.16 Celtics | +208.06 | $38.16 Celtics | +208.06 | $16.41 Celtics | +89.48 | — | — | $31.64 Celtics | +172.47 | $31.64 Celtics | +172.47 | -5.00 |
| Apr 10 | Pistons vs. Hornets | NBA | 50% Pistons | 65% Hornets | Pistons | ✓ | 0.246 | 75.6% Pistons | $11.56 Pistons | +21.00 | $31.06 Pistons | +56.44 | $31.06 Pistons | +56.44 | $22.87 Pistons | +41.55 | $22.87 Pistons | +41.55 | $38.52 Pistons | +69.98 | $38.52 Pistons | +69.98 | -5.00 |
| Apr 9 | Heat vs. Raptors | NBA | 63% Raptors | 57% Raptors | Raptors | ✓ | 0.135 | 39.0% Raptors | $6.81 Raptors | +5.03 | — | — | $16.07 Heat | -16.07 | — | — | $8.40 Heat | -8.40 | — | — | — | — | +3.70 |