Scorecard
How Many Worlds predictions compare to actual outcomes
65.5%
MWR Accuracy
36/55 correct
66.5%
MWR Expected Rate
avg prob of our pick
49.1%
Market Accuracy
27/55 correct
64.6%
Market Expected Rate
avg prob of mkt pick
0.2546
MWR Brier Score
lower is better
0.2744
Market Brier Score
lower is better
12.3%
Avg Edge
|sim − market|
55
Games Scored
resolved w/ sim
+$348.54
Naive Kelly P&L
348.5% on $100 · $638.72 staked · ROI 54.6% · 55 bets · ½-Kelly no cap
+$81.39
Flat Bet MWR P&L
81.4% on $100 · $275.00 staked · ROI 29.6% · 55 bets · $5 flat
$-64.33
Bet-the-Market P&L
-64.3% on $100 · $275.00 staked · ROI -23.4% · 55 bets · $5 flat
All Predictions
| Date | Game | Sport | MWR | Market | Winner | Result | Brier | Naive Bet | Naive P&L | MWR P&L | Mkt P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13 | Knicks vs. Spurs | NBA | 51% Spurs | 65% Spurs | Knicks | ✗ | 0.265 | — | — | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Jun 10 | Spurs vs. Knicks | NBA | 53% Knicks | 53% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.218 | — | — | +4.35 | +4.35 |
| Jun 8 | Spurs vs. Knicks | NBA | 71% Knicks | 54% Knicks | Spurs | ✗ | 0.507 | $18.39 Knicks | -18.39 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Jun 5 | Knicks vs. Spurs | NBA | 63% Spurs | 67% Spurs | Knicks | ✗ | 0.396 | — | — | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Jun 3 | Knicks vs. Spurs | NBA | 66% Spurs | 64% Spurs | Knicks | ✗ | 0.440 | $3.91 Spurs | -3.91 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| May 30 | Spurs vs. Thunder | NBA | 62% Thunder | 57% Thunder | Spurs | ✗ | 0.384 | $5.29 Thunder | -5.29 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| May 28 | Thunder vs. Spurs | NBA | 52% Spurs | 59% Spurs | Spurs | ✓ | 0.235 | — | — | +3.55 | +3.55 |
| May 26 | Spurs vs. Thunder | NBA | 53% Thunder | 63% Thunder | Thunder | ✓ | 0.223 | — | — | +3.00 | +3.00 |
| May 25 | Knicks vs. Cavaliers | NBA | 72% Knicks | 56% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.077 | $18.08 Knicks | +13.92 | +3.85 | +3.85 |
| May 24 | Thunder vs. Spurs | NBA | 55% Thunder | 55% Spurs | Spurs | ✗ | 0.304 | $9.61 Thunder | -9.61 | -5.00 | +4.01 |
| May 23 | Knicks vs. Cavaliers | NBA | 51% Knicks | 55% Cavaliers | Knicks | ✓ | 0.239 | $5.99 Knicks | +7.48 | +6.24 | -5.00 |
| May 22 | Thunder vs. Spurs | NBA | 65% Thunder | 53% Spurs | Thunder | ✓ | 0.124 | $17.08 Thunder | +19.65 | +5.75 | -5.00 |
| May 21 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks | NBA | 80% Knicks | 69% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.039 | $18.63 Knicks | +8.57 | +2.30 | +2.30 |
| May 19 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks | NBA | 73% Knicks | 69% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.075 | $6.58 Knicks | +3.03 | +2.30 | +2.30 |
| May 18 | Spurs vs. Thunder | NBA | 76% Thunder | 68% Thunder | Spurs | ✗ | 0.577 | $12.99 Thunder | -12.99 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| May 15 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers | NBA | 77% Cavaliers | 61% Cavaliers | Pistons | ✗ | 0.595 | $21.02 Cavaliers | -21.02 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| May 13 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | NBA | 67% Pistons | 62% Pistons | Cavaliers | ✗ | 0.455 | $7.69 Pistons | -7.69 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| May 11 | Thunder vs. Lakers | NBA | 85% Thunder | 82% Thunder | Thunder | ✓ | 0.023 | $8.95 Thunder | +2.03 | +1.13 | +1.13 |
| May 10 | Knicks vs. 76ers | NBA | 72% Knicks | 53% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.079 | $20.49 Knicks | +18.54 | +4.52 | +4.52 |
| May 9 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers | NBA | 64% Pistons | 62% Cavaliers | Cavaliers | ✗ | 0.414 | $21.03 Pistons | -21.03 | -5.00 | +3.13 |
| May 8 | Knicks vs. 76ers | NBA | 73% Knicks | 52% 76ers | Knicks | ✓ | 0.071 | $24.17 Knicks | +25.66 | +5.31 | -5.00 |
| May 7 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | NBA | 68% Pistons | 61% Pistons | Pistons | ✓ | 0.103 | $9.28 Pistons | +6.06 | +3.26 | +3.26 |
| May 6 | 76ers vs. Knicks | NBA | 80% Knicks | 73% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.041 | $13.40 Knicks | +5.08 | +1.90 | +1.90 |
| May 5 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | NBA | 55% Pistons | 59% Pistons | Pistons | ✓ | 0.201 | — | — | +3.55 | +3.55 |
| May 4 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs | NBA | 80% Spurs | 85% Spurs | Timberwolves | ✗ | 0.641 | — | — | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| May 4 | 76ers vs. Knicks | NBA | 77% Knicks | 71% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.055 | $10.26 Knicks | +4.29 | +2.09 | +2.09 |
| Apr 27 | Pistons vs. Magic | NBA | 83% Magic | 57% Pistons | Magic | ✓ | 0.029 | $35.22 Magic | +47.66 | +6.76 | -5.00 |
| Apr 26 | Lakers vs. Rockets | NBA | 58% Rockets | 55% Rockets | Rockets | ✓ | 0.175 | $3.04 Rockets | +2.44 | +4.01 | +4.01 |
| Apr 26 | Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | NBA | 51% Spurs | 65% Spurs | Spurs | ✓ | 0.236 | — | — | +2.75 | +2.75 |
| Apr 26 | Cavaliers vs. Raptors | NBA | 52% Cavaliers | 61% Cavaliers | Raptors | ✗ | 0.274 | — | — | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 25 | Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | NBA | 79% Timberwolves | 52% Nuggets | Timberwolves | ✓ | 0.042 | $30.00 Timberwolves | +31.85 | +5.31 | -5.00 |
| Apr 25 | Knicks vs. Hawks | NBA | 58% Knicks | 54% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.174 | $5.20 Knicks | +4.52 | +4.35 | +4.35 |
| Apr 25 | Thunder vs. Suns | NBA | 71% Thunder | 78% Thunder | Thunder | ✓ | 0.085 | — | — | +1.45 | +1.45 |
| Apr 25 | Pistons vs. Magic | NBA | 52% Magic | 56% Pistons | Magic | ✓ | 0.235 | $7.12 Magic | +9.24 | +6.49 | -5.00 |
| Apr 24 | Lakers vs. Rockets | NBA | 74% Rockets | 75% Rockets | Lakers | ✗ | 0.550 | — | — | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 24 | Celtics vs. 76ers | NBA | 67% Celtics | 73% Celtics | Celtics | ✓ | 0.107 | — | — | +1.90 | +1.90 |
| Apr 23 | Knicks vs. Hawks | NBA | 60% Hawks | 52% Knicks | Hawks | ✓ | 0.162 | $10.94 Hawks | +11.62 | +5.31 | -5.00 |
| Apr 22 | Magic vs. Pistons | NBA | 62% Pistons | 78% Pistons | Pistons | ✓ | 0.143 | — | — | +1.45 | +1.45 |
| Apr 21 | Rockets vs. Lakers | NBA | 75% Lakers | 65% Rockets | Lakers | ✓ | 0.061 | $30.83 Lakers | +56.02 | +9.08 | -5.00 |
| Apr 20 | Hawks vs. Knicks | NBA | 70% Knicks | 70% Knicks | Hawks | ✗ | 0.488 | $0.53 Knicks | -0.53 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 19 | Magic vs. Pistons | NBA | 76% Pistons | 78% Pistons | Magic | ✗ | 0.572 | — | — | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 19 | 76ers vs. Celtics | NBA | 84% Celtics | 88% Celtics | Celtics | ✓ | 0.027 | — | — | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Apr 18 | Rockets vs. Lakers | NBA | 78% Rockets | 68% Rockets | Lakers | ✗ | 0.605 | $15.78 Rockets | -15.78 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 18 | Hawks vs. Knicks | NBA | 58% Knicks | 68% Knicks | Knicks | ✓ | 0.179 | — | — | +2.41 | +2.41 |
| Apr 18 | Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | NBA | 68% Nuggets | 74% Nuggets | Nuggets | ✓ | 0.099 | — | — | +1.80 | +1.80 |
| Apr 18 | Raptors vs. Cavaliers | NBA | 66% Cavaliers | 78% Cavaliers | Cavaliers | ✓ | 0.114 | — | — | +1.45 | +1.45 |
| Apr 17 | Hornets vs. Magic | NBA | 59% Magic | 60% Hornets | Magic | ✓ | 0.169 | $15.46 Magic | +22.72 | +7.35 | -5.00 |
| Apr 15 | Warriors vs. Clippers | NBA | 79% Clippers | 68% Clippers | Warriors | ✗ | 0.619 | $17.17 Clippers | -17.17 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 15 | Magic vs. 76ers | NBA | 76% Magic | 53% 76ers | 76ers | ✗ | 0.582 | $27.86 Magic | -27.86 | -5.00 | +4.35 |
| Apr 14 | Trail Blazers vs. Suns | NBA | 75% Suns | 59% Suns | Trail Blazers | ✗ | 0.567 | $20.23 Suns | -20.23 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 14 | Heat vs. Hornets | NBA | 54% Hornets | 68% Hornets | Hornets | ✓ | 0.213 | — | — | +2.41 | +2.41 |
| Apr 12 | Nuggets vs. Spurs | NBA | 61% Nuggets | 79% Spurs | Nuggets | ✓ | 0.154 | $24.99 Nuggets | +91.23 | +18.26 | -5.00 |
| Apr 12 | Magic vs. Celtics | NBA | 57% Celtics | 85% Magic | Celtics | ✓ | 0.184 | $24.63 Celtics | +134.29 | +27.26 | -5.00 |
| Apr 10 | Pistons vs. Hornets | NBA | 50% Pistons | 65% Hornets | Pistons | ✓ | 0.246 | $11.56 Pistons | +21.00 | +9.08 | -5.00 |
| Apr 9 | Heat vs. Raptors | NBA | 63% Raptors | 57% Raptors | Raptors | ✓ | 0.135 | $6.81 Raptors | +5.03 | +3.70 | +3.70 |