Scorecard
How Many Worlds predictions compare to actual outcomes
63.6%
MWR Accuracy
14/22 correct
65.4%
MWR Expected Rate
avg prob of our pick
45.5%
Market Accuracy
10/22 correct
56.8%
Market Expected Rate
avg prob of mkt pick
0.2292
MWR Brier Score
lower is better
0.2480
Market Brier Score
lower is better
10.9%
Avg Edge
|sim − market|
22
Games Scored
resolved w/ sim
+$88.31
Naive Kelly P&L
88.3% on $100 · $252.03 staked · ROI 35.0% · 22 bets · ½-Kelly no cap
+$21.30
Flat Bet MWR P&L
21.3% on $100 · $110.00 staked · ROI 19.4% · 22 bets · $5 flat
$-23.85
Bet-the-Market P&L
-23.8% on $100 · $110.00 staked · ROI -21.7% · 22 bets · $5 flat
All Predictions
| Date | Game | Sport | MWR | Market | Winner | Result | Brier | Naive Bet | Naive P&L | MWR P&L | Mkt P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | NHL | 68% Hurricanes | 53% Hurricanes | Hurricanes | ✓ | 0.100 | $16.74 Hurricanes | +15.15 | +4.52 | +4.52 |
| Jun 11 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | NHL | 58% Hurricanes | 59% Hurricanes | Hurricanes | ✓ | 0.178 | — | — | +3.55 | +3.55 |
| Jun 6 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | NHL | 65% Hurricanes | 51% Hurricanes | Golden Knights | ✗ | 0.427 | $15.02 Hurricanes | -15.02 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Jun 4 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | NHL | 59% Hurricanes | 59% Hurricanes | Hurricanes | ✓ | 0.170 | $0.31 Hurricanes | +0.22 | +3.55 | +3.55 |
| Jun 2 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | NHL | 61% Hurricanes | 60% Hurricanes | Golden Knights | ✗ | 0.376 | $2.23 Hurricanes | -2.23 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| May 29 | Canadiens vs. Hurricanes | NHL | 77% Hurricanes | 69% Hurricanes | Hurricanes | ✓ | 0.051 | $14.16 Hurricanes | +6.51 | +2.30 | +2.30 |
| May 27 | Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | NHL | 76% Hurricanes | 59% Hurricanes | Hurricanes | ✓ | 0.057 | $21.14 Hurricanes | +15.00 | +3.55 | +3.55 |
| May 26 | Avalanche vs. Golden Knights | NHL | 64% Golden Knights | 51% Avalanche | Golden Knights | ✓ | 0.131 | $14.10 Golden Knights | +14.38 | +5.10 | -5.00 |
| May 25 | Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | NHL | 65% Hurricanes | 56% Hurricanes | Hurricanes | ✓ | 0.121 | $10.03 Hurricanes | +7.72 | +3.85 | +3.85 |
| May 24 | Avalanche vs. Golden Knights | NHL | 78% Golden Knights | 57% Avalanche | Golden Knights | ✓ | 0.050 | $30.63 Golden Knights | +41.45 | +6.76 | -5.00 |
| May 23 | Canadiens vs. Hurricanes | NHL | 74% Hurricanes | 66% Hurricanes | Hurricanes | ✓ | 0.069 | $11.94 Hurricanes | +6.29 | +2.63 | +2.63 |
| May 11 | Avalanche vs. Wild | NHL | 68% Avalanche | 56% Avalanche | Avalanche | ✓ | 0.105 | $12.73 Avalanche | +9.80 | +3.85 | +3.85 |
| May 8 | Canadiens vs. Sabres | NHL | 72% Canadiens | 54% Sabres | Canadiens | ✓ | 0.078 | $24.32 Canadiens | +29.13 | +5.99 | -5.00 |
| Apr 29 | Canadiens vs. Lightning | NHL | 59% Lightning | 60% Lightning | Canadiens | ✗ | 0.351 | — | — | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 28 | Bruins vs. Sabres | NHL | 78% Sabres | 60% Sabres | Bruins | ✗ | 0.603 | $22.40 Sabres | -22.40 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 26 | Sabres vs. Bruins | NHL | 51% Sabres | 52% Bruins | Sabres | ✓ | 0.235 | $2.89 Sabres | +3.06 | +5.31 | -5.00 |
| Apr 23 | Sabres vs. Bruins | NHL | 69% Bruins | 51% Bruins | Sabres | ✗ | 0.480 | $18.99 Bruins | -18.99 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 20 | Flyers vs. Penguins | NHL | 57% Penguins | 57% Penguins | Flyers | ✗ | 0.327 | — | — | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 15 | Red Wings vs. Panthers | NHL | 63% Red Wings | 60% Red Wings | Panthers | ✗ | 0.401 | $4.68 Red Wings | -4.68 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Apr 13 | Avalanche vs. Oilers | NHL | 53% Avalanche | 53% Avalanche | Avalanche | ✓ | 0.219 | — | — | +4.35 | +4.35 |
| Apr 13 | Hurricanes vs. Flyers | NHL | 60% Hurricanes | 55% Flyers | Flyers | ✗ | 0.361 | $14.07 Hurricanes | -14.07 | -5.00 | +4.01 |
| Apr 11 | Panthers vs. Maple Leafs | NHL | 61% Panthers | 54% Maple Leafs | Panthers | ✓ | 0.151 | $14.33 Panthers | +17.17 | +5.99 | -5.00 |