Scorecard
How Many Worlds predictions compare to actual outcomes
45.5%
MWR Accuracy
5/11 correct
62.9%
MWR Expected Rate
avg prob of our pick
27.3%
Market Accuracy
3/11 correct
55.7%
Market Expected Rate
avg prob of mkt pick
0.3011
MWR Brier Score
lower is better
0.2828
Market Brier Score
lower is better
10.3%
Avg Edge
|sim − market|
11
Games Scored
resolved w/ sim
$-0.55
Naive Kelly P&L
-0.6% on $100 · $115.13 staked · ROI -0.5% · 11 bets · ½-Kelly no cap
+$52.24
Cal. Kelly P&L
52.2% on $100 · $108.46 staked · ROI 48.2% · 4 bets · ½-Kelly calibrated
+$60.23
Flex Kelly P&L
60.2% on $100 · $338.59 staked · ROI 17.8% · 11 bets · ½-Kelly flex-side
+$28.72
Cal. v2 Kelly P&L
123.0% on $100 · $23.35 staked · ROI 123.0% · 2 bets · exp model
+$69.85
Flex v2 Kelly P&L
113.7% on $100 · $61.45 staked · ROI 113.7% · 4 bets · exp flex
+$119.06
2L v4 Kelly P&L
112.7% on $100 · $105.62 staked · ROI 112.7% · 4 bets · 2-layer policy
+$154.24
v4∥Cal Kelly P&L
112.1% on $100 · $137.56 staked · ROI 112.1% · 6 bets · v4 else cal
$-27.80
Bet-the-Market P&L
-27.8% on $100 · $55.00 staked · ROI -50.5% · 11 bets · $5 flat
All Predictions
| Date | Game | Sport | MWR | Market | Winner | Result | Brier | Cal. Prob | Naive Bet | Naive P&L | Cal. Bet | Cal. P&L | Flex Bet | Flex P&L | v2 Bet | v2 P&L | fv2 Bet | fv2 P&L | v4 Bet | v4 P&L | v4∥Cal Bet | v4∥Cal P&L | Mkt P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11 | Avalanche vs. Wild | NHL | 68% Avalanche | 56% Avalanche | Avalanche | ✓ | 0.105 | 62.7% Avalanche | $12.73 Avalanche | +9.80 | $7.18 Avalanche | +5.53 | $7.18 Avalanche | +5.53 | — | — | — | — | — | — | $7.18 Avalanche | +5.53 | +3.85 |
| May 8 | Canadiens vs. Sabres | NHL | 72% Canadiens | 54% Sabres | Canadiens | ✓ | 0.078 | 72.5% Canadiens | $24.32 Canadiens | +29.13 | $24.76 Canadiens | +29.65 | $24.76 Canadiens | +29.65 | — | — | — | — | — | — | $24.76 Canadiens | +29.65 | -5.00 |
| Apr 29 | Canadiens vs. Lightning | NHL | 59% Lightning | 60% Lightning | Canadiens | ✗ | 0.351 | 1.8% Canadiens | $0.24 Canadiens | +0.35 | — | — | $47.78 Lightning | -47.78 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| Apr 28 | Bruins vs. Sabres | NHL | 78% Sabres | 60% Sabres | Bruins | ✗ | 0.603 | 22.0% Sabres | $22.40 Sabres | -22.40 | — | — | $31.55 Bruins | +46.35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| Apr 26 | Sabres vs. Bruins | NHL | 51% Sabres | 52% Bruins | Sabres | ✓ | 0.235 | 8.2% Sabres | $2.89 Sabres | +3.06 | — | — | $41.59 Bruins | -41.59 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| Apr 23 | Sabres vs. Bruins | NHL | 69% Bruins | 51% Bruins | Sabres | ✗ | 0.480 | 84.1% Bruins | $18.99 Bruins | -18.99 | $33.94 Bruins | -33.94 | $33.94 Bruins | -33.94 | — | — | $15.00 Sabres | +15.30 | $19.70 Sabres | +20.09 | $19.70 Sabres | +20.09 | -5.00 |
| Apr 20 | Flyers vs. Penguins | NHL | 57% Penguins | 57% Penguins | Flyers | ✗ | 0.327 | 17.8% Flyers | $0.24 Flyers | +0.33 | — | — | $29.12 Penguins | -29.12 | $4.79 Flyers | +6.48 | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.00 |
| Apr 15 | Red Wings vs. Panthers | NHL | 63% Red Wings | 60% Red Wings | Panthers | ✗ | 0.401 | 34.7% Red Wings | $4.68 Red Wings | -4.68 | — | — | $20.87 Panthers | +30.66 | — | — | $14.92 Panthers | +21.92 | $22.45 Panthers | +32.99 | $22.45 Panthers | +32.99 | -5.00 |
| Apr 13 | Avalanche vs. Oilers | NHL | 53% Avalanche | 53% Avalanche | Avalanche | ✓ | 0.219 | 19.1% Oilers | $0.26 Oilers | -0.26 | — | — | $29.48 Avalanche | +25.62 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +4.35 |
| Apr 13 | Hurricanes vs. Flyers | NHL | 60% Hurricanes | 55% Flyers | Flyers | ✗ | 0.361 | 18.0% Hurricanes | $14.07 Hurricanes | -14.07 | — | — | $29.75 Flyers | +23.85 | — | — | $12.96 Flyers | +10.39 | $25.39 Flyers | +20.36 | $25.39 Flyers | +20.36 | +4.01 |
| Apr 11 | Panthers vs. Maple Leafs | NHL | 61% Panthers | 54% Maple Leafs | Panthers | ✓ | 0.151 | 91.9% Panthers | $14.33 Panthers | +17.17 | $42.58 Panthers | +51.00 | $42.58 Panthers | +51.00 | $18.56 Panthers | +22.23 | $18.56 Panthers | +22.23 | $38.09 Panthers | +45.62 | $38.09 Panthers | +45.62 | -5.00 |