Scorecard

How Many Worlds predictions compare to actual outcomes

All Sports NBA NFL MLB NHL Cricket Earnings
74.2% MWR Accuracy 46/62 correct
62.3% MWR Expected Rate avg prob of our pick
71.0% Market Accuracy 44/62 correct
55.8% Market Expected Rate avg prob of mkt pick
0.2051 MWR Brier Score lower is better
0.2249 Market Brier Score lower is better
8.5% Avg Edge |sim − market|
62 Games Scored resolved w/ sim
+$192.13 Naive Kelly P&L 192.1% on $100 · $571.34 staked · ROI 33.6% · 62 bets · ½-Kelly no cap
+$208.22 Cal. Kelly P&L 208.2% on $100 · $657.44 staked · ROI 31.7% · 28 bets · ½-Kelly calibrated
+$47.20 Flex Kelly P&L 47.2% on $100 · $1321.07 staked · ROI 3.6% · 61 bets · ½-Kelly flex-side
$-28.44 Cal. v2 Kelly P&L -26.3% on $100 · $107.95 staked · ROI -26.3% · 8 bets · exp model
$-31.69 Flex v2 Kelly P&L -17.2% on $100 · $184.33 staked · ROI -17.2% · 13 bets · exp flex
+$12.37 2L v4 Kelly P&L 4.4% on $100 · $278.84 staked · ROI 4.4% · 12 bets · 2-layer policy
+$228.25 v4∥Cal Kelly P&L 29.1% on $100 · $783.25 staked · ROI 29.1% · 34 bets · v4 else cal
+$83.24 Bet-the-Market P&L 83.2% on $100 · $310.00 staked · ROI 26.9% · 62 bets · $5 flat

All Predictions

Date Game Sport MWR Market Winner Result Brier Cal. Prob Naive Bet Naive P&L Cal. Bet Cal. P&L Flex Bet Flex P&L v2 Bet v2 P&L fv2 Bet fv2 P&L v4 Bet v4 P&L v4∥Cal Bet v4∥Cal P&L Mkt P&L
May 17 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB 64% Dodgers 56% Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 0.126 32.1% Dodgers $9.14 Dodgers +7.03 $21.62 Angels -21.62 +3.85
May 17 Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox MLB 60% Cubs 55% Cubs Chicago White Sox 0.363 23.4% Cubs $6.28 Cubs -6.28 $28.55 White Sox +34.20 -5.00
May 16 Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB 74% Guardians 61% Guardians Cleveland Guardians 0.068 35.7% Guardians $17.06 Guardians +11.14 $20.49 Reds -20.49 +3.26
May 16 Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB 73% Phillies 60% Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 0.073 95.3% Phillies $16.76 Phillies +11.41 $44.15 Phillies +30.05 $44.15 Phillies +30.05 $44.15 Phillies +30.05 +3.40
May 15 New York Yankees vs. New York Mets MLB 66% Yankees 57% Yankees New York Yankees 0.116 35.0% Yankees $9.85 Yankees +7.28 $19.55 Mets -19.55 +3.70
May 15 Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB 51% Pirates 55% Pirates Philadelphia Phillies 0.265 80.6% Phillies $3.61 Phillies +4.50 $32.53 Phillies +40.57 $32.53 Phillies +40.57 $32.53 Phillies +40.57 -5.00
May 14 Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros MLB 62% Mariners 55% Mariners Seattle Mariners 0.147 17.9% Mariners $7.84 Mariners +6.55 $33.61 Astros -33.61 +4.17
May 13 Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox MLB 59% Royals 51% White Sox Chicago White Sox 0.352 59.4% Royals $9.76 Royals -9.76 $9.83 Royals -9.83 $9.83 Royals -9.83 $9.83 Royals -9.83 +4.90
May 13 Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox MLB 69% Red Sox 55% Red Sox Boston Red Sox 0.097 53.2% Red Sox $14.98 Red Sox +12.01 $2.10 Phillies -2.10 +4.01
May 12 Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves MLB 66% Braves 53% Braves Atlanta Braves 0.115 93.2% Braves $13.53 Braves +11.76 $42.68 Braves +37.10 $42.68 Braves +37.10 $42.68 Braves +37.10 +4.35
May 12 New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB 68% Yankees 62% Yankees New York Yankees 0.103 37.5% Yankees $8.33 Yankees +5.21 $19.49 Orioles -19.49 +3.13
May 12 Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB 52% Guardians 56% Guardians Cleveland Guardians 0.226 43.6% Angels $3.57 Angels -3.57 $0.12 Angels -0.12 $0.12 Angels -0.12 $0.12 Angels -0.12 +3.85
May 11 Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros MLB 50% Mariners 56% Mariners Seattle Mariners 0.247 73.8% Astros $5.46 Astros -5.46 $26.85 Astros -26.85 $26.85 Astros -26.85 $26.85 Astros -26.85 +3.85
May 11 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB 60% Blue Jays 53% Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 0.362 61.9% Blue Jays $7.13 Blue Jays -7.13 $9.03 Blue Jays -9.03 $9.03 Blue Jays -9.03 $9.03 Blue Jays -9.03 -5.00
May 10 New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB 52% Brewers 53% Yankees Milwaukee Brewers 0.232 88.8% Brewers $4.94 Brewers +5.68 $39.55 Brewers +45.51 $39.55 Brewers +45.51 $39.55 Brewers +45.51 -5.00
May 9 Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB 53% Orioles 54% Orioles Athletics 0.279 10.1% Athletics $1.55 Athletics +1.85 $38.89 Orioles -38.89 -5.00
May 7 Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals MLB 66% Royals 56% Royals Cleveland Guardians 0.442 68.1% Royals $11.46 Royals -11.46 $13.34 Royals -13.34 $13.34 Royals -13.34 $13.34 Royals -13.34 -5.00
May 6 San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants MLB 52% Padres 51% Padres San Diego Padres 0.230 8.6% Padres $1.53 Padres +1.50 $41.49 Giants -41.49 +4.90
May 5 Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals MLB 61% Twins 51% Nationals Minnesota Twins 0.155 73.5% Twins $10.99 Twins +11.21 $23.77 Twins +24.25 $23.77 Twins +24.25 $23.77 Twins +24.25 -5.00
May 4 Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB 74% Rays 53% Rays Tampa Bay Rays 0.066 87.1% Rays $22.29 Rays +19.38 $36.17 Rays +31.44 $36.17 Rays +31.44 $36.17 Rays +31.44 +4.35
May 3 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals MLB 60% Dodgers 57% Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 0.159 16.3% Dodgers $3.15 Dodgers +2.33 $35.84 Cardinals -35.84 +3.70
May 3 Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees MLB 78% Yankees 68% Yankees New York Yankees 0.047 72.4% Yankees $16.52 Yankees +7.95 $7.55 Yankees +3.63 $7.55 Yankees +3.63 $7.55 Yankees +3.63 +2.41
May 2 Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics MLB 57% Guardians 55% Athletics Cleveland Guardians 0.187 32.1% Guardians $11.03 Guardians +13.76 $13.93 Athletics -13.93 -5.00
May 2 Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins MLB 57% Blue Jays 55% Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 0.185 38.7% Blue Jays $2.74 Blue Jays +2.29 $14.53 Twins -14.53 +4.17
May 1 Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox MLB 51% Red Sox 54% Red Sox Boston Red Sox 0.244 32.5% Astros $2.66 Astros -2.66 $15.04 Red Sox +13.07 +4.35
May 1 Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees MLB 74% Yankees 61% Yankees New York Yankees 0.069 45.8% Yankees $16.77 Yankees +10.95 $12.11 Orioles -12.11 +3.26
May 1 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs MLB 54% Cubs 55% Cubs Chicago Cubs 0.214 61.2% Diamondbacks $1.61 Diamondbacks -1.61 $15.08 Diamondbacks -15.08 $15.08 Diamondbacks -15.08 $15.08 Diamondbacks -15.08 +4.01
Apr 30 San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB 53% Phillies 56% Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 0.226 80.0% Giants $3.53 Giants -3.53 $32.31 Giants -32.31 $32.31 Giants -32.31 $32.31 Giants -32.31 +3.85
Apr 30 San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB 72% Phillies 59% Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 0.081 84.8% Phillies $15.74 Phillies +11.16 $31.70 Phillies +22.49 $31.70 Phillies +22.49 $31.70 Phillies +22.49 +3.55
Apr 29 New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers MLB 57% Rangers 52% Yankees Texas Rangers 0.185 34.5% Rangers $8.21 Rangers +8.72 $14.43 Yankees -14.43 -5.00
Apr 29 Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox MLB 70% White Sox 52% Angels Chicago White Sox 0.092 92.0% White Sox $20.58 White Sox +21.85 $42.24 White Sox +44.86 $42.24 White Sox +44.86 $42.24 White Sox +44.86 -5.00
Apr 28 San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB 56% Phillies 61% Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 0.192 11.3% Giants $3.57 Giants -3.57 $35.74 Phillies +23.34 +3.26
Apr 28 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB 52% Rays 53% Guardians Tampa Bay Rays 0.231 33.0% Rays $5.08 Rays +5.84 $14.48 Guardians -14.48 -5.00
Apr 27 Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB 68% Blue Jays 55% Blue Jays Boston Red Sox 0.468 32.7% Blue Jays $14.49 Blue Jays -14.49 $20.51 Red Sox +25.59 -5.00
Apr 27 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB 59% Guardians 55% Guardians Tampa Bay Rays 0.352 66.1% Guardians $4.31 Guardians -4.31 $11.90 Guardians -11.90 $11.90 Guardians -11.90 $11.90 Guardians -11.90 -5.00
Apr 26 New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros MLB 56% Yankees 56% Yankees Houston Astros 0.316 17.5% Yankees $0.81 Yankees -0.81 $34.27 Astros +42.74 -5.00
Apr 25 Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants MLB 63% Giants 51% Giants San Francisco Giants 0.136 50.3% Giants $12.76 Giants +12.50 $0.16 Marlins -0.16 +4.90
Apr 25 Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB 74% Orioles 52% Orioles Boston Red Sox 0.543 70.3% Orioles $22.88 Orioles -22.88 $19.38 Orioles -19.38 $19.38 Orioles -19.38 $26.37 Red Sox +28.01 $37.76 Red Sox +40.10 $37.76 Red Sox +40.10 -5.00
Apr 24 Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB 71% Guardians 53% Guardians Cleveland Guardians 0.087 68.6% Guardians $18.33 Guardians +15.94 $16.21 Guardians +14.09 $16.21 Guardians +14.09 $16.21 Guardians +14.09 +4.35
Apr 23 Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals MLB 55% Braves 56% Braves Atlanta Braves 0.207 29.9% Nationals $0.86 Nationals -0.86 $16.39 Braves +13.14 $16.09 Nationals -16.09 $16.09 Nationals -16.09 $18.20 Nationals -18.20 $18.20 Nationals -18.20 +4.01
Apr 22 Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners MLB 63% Mariners 63% Mariners Seattle Mariners 0.137 40.7% Mariners $0.60 Mariners +0.36 $17.47 Athletics -17.47 +3.00
Apr 22 Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB 55% Rays 55% Rays Tampa Bay Rays 0.206 24.5% Reds $0.81 Reds -0.81 $22.44 Rays +17.99 $13.41 Reds -13.41 $13.41 Reds -13.41 $14.69 Reds -14.69 $14.69 Reds -14.69 +4.01
Apr 21 New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox MLB 50% Yankees 51% Yankees New York Yankees 0.247 56.7% Red Sox $0.22 Red Sox -0.22 $7.12 Red Sox -7.12 $7.12 Red Sox -7.12 $12.90 Red Sox -12.90 $12.90 Red Sox -12.90 $7.12 Red Sox -7.12 +4.90
Apr 21 Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB 76% Guardians 57% Guardians Cleveland Guardians 0.058 88.9% Guardians $21.65 Guardians +16.00 $36.95 Guardians +27.31 $36.95 Guardians +27.31 $36.95 Guardians +27.31 +3.70
Apr 20 Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox MLB 54% Red Sox 55% Red Sox Boston Red Sox 0.211 86.4% Tigers $1.30 Tigers -1.30 $37.73 Tigers -37.73 $37.73 Tigers -37.73 $16.89 Tigers -16.89 $16.89 Tigers -16.89 $19.88 Tigers -19.88 $19.88 Tigers -19.88 +4.01
Apr 19 Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB 68% Guardians 53% Guardians Cleveland Guardians 0.100 63.9% Guardians $15.93 Guardians +13.85 $11.22 Guardians +9.76 $11.22 Guardians +9.76 $11.22 Guardians +9.76 +4.35
Apr 19 Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees MLB 65% Yankees 59% Yankees New York Yankees 0.120 44.1% Yankees $8.26 Yankees +5.86 $12.28 Royals -12.28 +3.55
Apr 18 Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB 56% Blue Jays 57% Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 0.308 67.0% Blue Jays $11.32 Blue Jays -11.32 $21.30 Blue Jays -21.30 $21.30 Blue Jays -21.30 $7.99 Blue Jays -7.99 $7.99 Blue Jays -7.99 $13.26 Blue Jays -13.26 $13.26 Blue Jays -13.26 +3.70
Apr 17 Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins MLB 74% Twins 61% Twins Cincinnati Reds 0.551 40.3% Twins $17.39 Twins -17.39 $16.66 Reds +25.52 -5.00
Apr 17 Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox MLB 58% Red Sox 55% Red Sox Boston Red Sox 0.177 26.6% Red Sox $2.77 Red Sox +2.22 $26.07 Tigers -26.07 $11.41 Tigers -11.41 $24.52 Tigers -24.52 $24.52 Tigers -24.52 +4.01
Apr 17 Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees MLB 66% Yankees 62% Yankees New York Yankees 0.115 47.8% Yankees $5.90 Yankees +3.69 $11.10 Royals -11.10 +3.13
Apr 17 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB 52% Rays 53% Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 0.269 39.8% Rays $4.97 Rays -4.97 $7.16 Pirates +6.22 +4.35
Apr 17 New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs MLB 67% Cubs 57% Cubs Chicago Cubs 0.107 69.5% Cubs $11.54 Cubs +8.53 $14.10 Cubs +10.42 $14.10 Cubs +10.42 $14.10 Cubs +10.42 +3.70
Apr 16 Texas Rangers vs. Athletics MLB 66% Rangers 52% Rangers Texas Rangers 0.113 71.7% Rangers $15.30 Rangers +14.41 $20.87 Rangers +19.66 $20.87 Rangers +19.66 $6.85 Rangers +6.45 $6.85 Rangers +6.45 $23.09 Rangers +21.74 $23.09 Rangers +21.74 +4.71
Apr 15 Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros MLB 65% Astros 63% Astros Houston Astros 0.121 46.3% Astros $3.66 Astros +2.20 $12.92 Rockies -12.92 $14.75 Rockies -14.75 $23.28 Rockies -23.28 $23.28 Rockies -23.28 +3.00
Apr 15 Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals MLB 72% Cardinals 52% Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 0.080 38.3% Cardinals $20.75 Cardinals +19.54 $12.80 Guardians -12.80 $5.01 Cardinals +4.72 $5.01 Cardinals +4.72 $24.31 Cardinals +22.89 $24.31 Cardinals +22.89 +4.71
Apr 14 Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers MLB 71% Tigers 53% Tigers Detroit Tigers 0.085 61.3% Tigers $19.24 Tigers +17.41 $9.29 Tigers +8.40 $9.29 Tigers +8.40 $17.12 Tigers +15.49 $17.12 Tigers +15.49 +4.52
Apr 13 Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals MLB 63% Cardinals 52% Guardians Cleveland Guardians 0.402 44.2% Cardinals $14.44 Cardinals -14.44 $4.46 Guardians +4.20 +4.71
Apr 13 Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins MLB 62% Red Sox 61% Red Sox Minnesota Twins 0.386 $2.06 Red Sox -2.06 -5.00
Apr 13 Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves MLB 62% Braves 59% Braves Miami Marlins 0.380 12.2% Braves $3.79 Braves -3.79 $39.59 Marlins +55.81 $7.78 Marlins +10.97 -5.00
Apr 13 Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees MLB 71% Yankees 64% Yankees New York Yankees 0.082 28.7% Yankees $10.69 Yankees +6.14 $27.44 Angels -27.44 $16.07 Angels -16.07 $17.49 Angels -17.49 $17.49 Angels -17.49 +2.87
Apr 9 Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins MLB 58% Twins 51% Twins Minnesota Twins 0.177 94.6% Twins $7.08 Twins +6.80 $44.45 Twins +42.71 $44.45 Twins +42.71 $28.81 Twins +27.68 $28.81 Twins +27.68 $45.24 Twins +43.47 $45.24 Twins +43.47 +4.80